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| 1961～2015年贵州高原≥10 ℃积温时空变化特征 |
| The Spatiotemporal Change of Active Accumulated Temperature ≥10 ℃ in the Guizhou Plateau from 1961 to 2015 |
| 投稿时间：2018-07-13 修订日期：2018-11-14 |
| DOI：10.14050/j.cnki.1672-9250.2019.47.022 |
| 中文关键词: ≥10 ℃积温;突变年份;空间拟合;时空变化;贵州高原 |
| 英文关键词: active accumulated temperature ≥10℃;abrupt year;space simulation;spatiotemporal Change;Guizhou plateau |
| 基金项目:贵州省科技支撑项目（黔科合支撑[2017]2855）；贵州省科学技术项目（黔科合基础[2017]1195）；贵州师范大学2016年博士科研启动项目。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为揭示贵州高原≥10 ℃积温精细动态变化，以81个气象站点1961～2015年气温资料及地理信息数据为数据源，采用积温倾向率、累计距平、滑动T检验、小波分析、多元回归分析等统计方法，分析≥10 ℃的积温整体变化及周期变化，模拟各年代积温带空间变化。结果表明：（1）1961～2015年≥10 ℃积温平均值为5 147.22 ℃，1997年前后发生由冷到暖的突变，积温变化主周期约为3～5年，8年；（2）1961～2015年、1961～1996年、1997～2015年≥10℃积温倾向率均值分别为49.5 ℃/10a、-28.1 ℃/10a、123.5 ℃/10a，1961～1996年表现为降温趋势，1997～2015年表现为升温趋势，三个时间段积温倾向率均未通过显著性检验；（3）多元回归拟合≥10 ℃积温年代际空间分布，复相关系数均高于0.92，积温空间分布呈现由西向东、由北向南升高的趋势；（4）不同年代际间积温带动态变化差异较大，1980s后约有60%以上区域表现为积温带Ⅱ升为积温带Ⅲ，积温带Ⅲ升为Ⅳ，1990s后降温区域消失。积温资源的增加对受高原气候限制的贵州高原有重要影响，对调整农业气候区划，确定作物种植区域以及最优化利用热量资源更具有针对性。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In order to illuminate the characteristics of dynamic changes of active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃in the Guizhou Plateau, The linear trend method, the cumulative anomaly method, the slide T-test, wavelet analysis and the multiple linear regression interpolation method were employed in this study. On the basis of the geographic information data and the temperature data of from 1961 to 2015 observed at 81 meteorological stations, we analyzed the change trend of active accumulated temperature ≥ 10 ℃ in the period of 55 years and the characteristics of the spatial variation in the temperate zone. The result showed that: 1) The average of the active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ from 1961 to 2015 was 5 147.22 ℃ and there was a sudden temperature change of from cold to warm in 1997. 2) The trend rates of period Ⅰ (1961-2015), period Ⅱ (1961-1996) and period Ⅲ (1997-2015) were 49.5 ℃/10a, -28.1 ℃/10a and 123.5 ℃/10a, respectively. 3) All R2 of spatial distribution simulations of the active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ for different decades were greater than 0.92, the distribution of active accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ had increasing trends of from the west to the east and from the north to the south. 4) The low accumulated temperature zone transformed gradually to the high accumulated temperature zone after 1980s, about 60% of the plateau area changed from active accumulated temperature zone Ⅱ (ATZ_Ⅱ) to active accumulated temperature zone Ⅲ (ATZ_Ⅲ) or from active accumulated temperature zone Ⅲ (ATZ_Ⅲ) to active accumulated temperature zone Ⅳ (ATZ_Ⅳ). After 1990s, the cooling zone disappeared. The increase of active accumulated temperature has significant influences on the plateau climate restricted Guizhou plateau and is of significance to adjustment of the agricultural climate regionalization, determination of the crop planting area and optimization of the utilization of heat resources. |
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